http://o-j-n.blogspot.com/2010/11/weekend-analysis.html
It was indicating a clear downward bias. 6120 as SAR served well since the start of the week http://o-j-n.blogspot.com/2010/11/eod.html
and probable modest target of c-4 nearing 5850 levels almost achieved. and break of 5935 resulting in swift downmove (today's second half) was indicated yesterday EOD with reasons for the false bounce.
http://o-j-n.blogspot.com/2010/11/eod-notes.html
The bottom should not be called in a hurry , Indicators ditch, Diversions don't comply ,Wave counts go wrong, Fibo supports dont hold. It's better to enter for reverse trade after confirmations in higher time frames and corelations of TA signals.Such a confluence of signals was mentioned in midweek updated charts where fibo support, EW count of c-4,Trendline and 100dma are nearly converging (5750-5800).
http://o-j-n.blogspot.com/2010/11/update.html
Watch out for this zone and price action here for any bottoming out .Till then trade with trend or remain neutral.
Kya Picture Abhi Baki Hai ???
28 comments:
hi everybody
thanks aarvee finally u "turned here" :) as i am away :D. My calculation is
1.272 fib level from the yearly low is 5931.85 it breached but supported nd closed @ 125% of gann yearly level. If not turning up from here lot of step by step downside nos. even to 5600 on cards. busy in domestic issues.
Good night . bye
regards
RV,
from monday to December 06, uptrend is possible within a narrow range and again from december 06, downward is indicated as per ichi cloud movements...fyi
let me try astro on sunday ...
best
sri
Sujatha,
if u get time post ur views on weekend,as ur price only data interpretation will be helpful at this juncture
Sri,
as per ew also c-4 target of
1.618 x a has been achieved.Though not analyzed in detail, some sideways action looks probable .
what better timing than now for an astro post.
AarVee,
You have said right. But still as in any war plans and contingent plans have to be made. Now what next ? What tools we have to examine
1. use 100 / 200 DMA
2. use Fibo retracements/extensions/ archs/fans
3. use OI and PCR and Vix Data (Profile too)
4. use ichi clouds
5. Use trendlines
6. use trend indicators like ADX, MACD diversions
7. use MA conversions / spread (as in GMMA)
8. and there is always Candlesticks, Gann square etc etc
Amongst all above I fathom it is the right EW count which can help us the best in such a scene. You are the best here on EW. How about few alternate counts on EW considering this fall as (a) C of correction ABC (b) as Impulse Wave 1 of downfall in Wave 5 (c) as impulse wave 3. (d) and any other you feel fits best.
aarvee - let me try
alpha - what a list, yeah u EW people will change colour immediately :) by the way add another one in your list, that is breakout points that is very impt. i am eagarly waiting for the earlier breakout points whether it's holding or not? holding means sure vigorous upside possible. target .......
AAR VEE,
Nice analysis man! I agree with your point. I have been looking at OI data every single day and seeing massive 5900CE/6000CEs written when market was much higher and kept on thinking 'may be they will cover if it goes to 6180+'.. but nope it ain't happening.
Just want to add one thing -- Over a couple of months the market makers have trained the traders (including me) to react in a certain way when a certain level comes up on their screen. The best example was 5980. I must have gone long at least 2 or 3 times there and made money.
This is akin to teaching a dog how to jump through a ring at a certain height. You do it few times and the dog gets it. But someday if you change the height of the ring it will still try to jump ..
That's probably what happens in markets too. There are several folks who were trained to write 6000PE/5900PE/5800PEs when a certain prices comes on their screen. And they would just write it for couple of months and make money thinking of themselves to be the smartest ppl on the planet.
The same happened to call writers who used to write 5500-6000 calls during June/July/August. They probably lost a fortune when the breakout happened in September and it never looked back.
That said, I am thinking the worst for Nifty Futures (unless its rolling over like Jan 2008) should be monthly VAL from September 5770-5805.
Oops - this has become more like a post than comment :)
aha, what do i find here ....
Sujatha, Sri, Alpha, Girish
offering more than a comment [as Girish sayz] but so much info & observation in them!
Thanks for your sharing the thoughts, it helps big way. Especially the entire gamepit of strategies get covered in these comments & observations.
Yes Sujatha, time to lean back into larget timeframes with bigger numbers & patterns, considering the untrimmed growth in index heights.
Sri, if time permits do comeup with Gann and Astro, and this time with the Gann Fan & Gann squares too.
Aarvee, You are the master observer with strong perceptions. Your posts are heavy in stuff. Thanks man.
Alpha, I see your point to look into new pages when so much moves happen.
Girish, Pavlov Theory of conditioning, later adopted by the MindConditioners ... thought provoking observation, especially when trades are seen to make SL taken out before reversals to eliminate the weaker hands.
You are welcome to post if you wish.
And, your comments add value here.
So, no oops... :D
Have a nice weekend, all, we got a busy week coming up.
OJN beauty is - all are well TA except me :D thanks to my seniors.
Mok, my stock specifics are doing fine, if at all market closed in RED also :) no probs. i feel this is the accumulating time and am doing fine. but at the same time i a watching the levels closely and got impt line - 5850/20 below that 5727. so inbetween if the above levels holds i will hold my stocks. or else i will be out with my portfolio. In the above mentioned levels holds i may go long it's depends on the "market situation".
PS : Enjoyeddddd a lot with kids. oree majaaaaathan.
Sujatha,
while i just wondered about picking stocks this new slide down ...
Looks good time to start an accumulation of good scrips - but the criteria may change now on which category. Your approach on building portfolio goes with my thoughts. Lets watch the levels when to enter for positionals and when to breakout if further uneventful slide in mkt.
I have added some charts of everyday updating daily ones at OJN1, just to have an idea at a glance. If you want any particular scrip added to that mention it, i will get it added.
Good, she would have enjoyed the holiday too. :)
Have a great time!
Hi Alpha1,
if u observe my weekender ,i try and use relevant TA indicators to provide the insight of things to come in few concluding lines.
Why not use them all and reach a corelation :))
Good Evening All. First thx RV for Wonderful Levels & analysis. @ Sujatha missing ur intra outputs.
Hi Girish,
Thanks for the comments.
I follow ur posts at vtrender and should congratulate u on doing a goos job regularly.
Just for information sake ,the option writers are one of the smartest lot trading in the arena and seldom loose money as they have deep pockets and most of them employ proper hedging also backed by deliveries of the instruments they trade in.Its only the retailers which are massacered ,which they will be anyway ,just that the road there is faster to hell.
Ya Sujatha,
EW people get a legal sanction to have alternate view :).But shouldnt everyone have that flexibility in trading to know the point of invalidation and change their tracks irrespective of the method they follow.?
waiting for ur price only post with corelation of fibo,gann,cama and pivots
Hi musti,
good evening
hope the week was profitable and enjoyable with the festival.
@ girish
typo- read good ipo goos:)
In my view Nf gives a nice breakdown below 5900 -5940 zone. This level atempted many times since Sept & gives nice suport & bounce frm here. But this time Nf breaks this level with volumes & closes below it. So now it should be a minimum of 400 points fall frm here, with some intra bounces as the case of oversold.
thnx all..
such good posts and levels..
i dont hav much brain to put but one thing which makes me think s "goras" were making levels to fetch dii in ..
they are able to do a bit ..till US easing is on no worry..as we(india) dont hold usUS treasuries what china does..
another thing any negative sentiment created (Pm giving resignation) almost in last hrs s acalling fr a rally or a halt..infact big halt..i hav seen from last 5 years..recent icici pull was due to such news ..
i c 7200 by march-april ..and a down freeze n april last week ..they will not make may this time..:)
manu ,
awesome predictions :))
Yes, musti, anything this season, since the ranges we talk are ranges in this 3months from sep only.
HI Manu, thats new stream of thoughts manu, new directions. Thanks pal. Keep expressing.
Thanks AAR VEE/MO K.
Will definitely provide inputs based on what I know.
PCR has gone down to 1.0 (Shrekhan is reporting 1.0 & Karvy is reporting 0.97). There have been only 6 such instances when PCR has gone below 1.0 during this bull market that started from March 2009:
1-2. June/July 2009 - 800 point correction with an expiry in between.
3. August 2009 - 400 point
4. Oct 2009 - 600+ point correction
5. Jan 2010 - 600+ point correction
6. May 2010 - 600+ point correction
I don't have a chart buy I have GIF from karvy with these historical numbers.
Only thing is this is not the lowest PCR of all those corrections. So "Picture Baki Ho Sakta Hai".
PS: One last thing about options writers - in the last few months I have seen several retail folks writing options too & brokerages recommending writing options close to expiry. I am sure they are the ones who will lose the most if some sudden fall/rise happens as they mostly write naked calls/puts.
Girish, hi,
all Nifty Future:
2009Jul 3962 about 100 above 89day EMA
2009Aug 4341 about 10 above 55day SMA
2009Nov 4532 about 1 above 144day SMA
2010Feb 4667 about 6 above 200day SMA
2010May 4901 about 7 above 200day SMA
2010Aug 5356 about 30 above 89day SMA
each occassion, on hindsight, looks good spot to buy on dips.
In May 2010 the FII flow was negative.
Now, Nifty future is at 70 point above 89day SMA.
AK prabakar had expressed based on PCR 1.06 a positive possibility.
http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/11/bulls-bears-nifty-ahead-of-settlement.html
But you have brought in PCR below 1, so the look may be lousier. Thanks Girish, you match aarvee in depth of analysis.
mok,
comparisions can be deceptive and unhealthy.may be Girish can feel let down with u comparing him with me:))
better avoid it.:))
Ok RV agreed,
but i am putting it out in a positive sense, since i know both of you look at market in depth and with lot of perception.
:))
Girish is like us, down to earth.
factual.
Girish,
Let me try to post the chart you mentioned, with appropriate EMA, SMAs.
mok
let down to earth people remain there with there feets tight on earth . let them not go in depths
LOL MO K/AAR VEE - No need to pull my legs man. I am yet another higher middle class Engineer and a trader with poor record.
I think its not what you know - 'its how you use it that matters'. So far I haven't been that good in applying what I know.
I guess trading is one of the toughest skills to acquire as it involves junking 'what we feel should happen' and listening to 'what market wants to say' acting accordingly.
You guys have created a very good blog and should feel proud of yourself.
Have a good weekend guys!
GD..i m d worst trader ever known till date..
and will try to be the discplined trader in times to come :)
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