Weekend Analysis

1. The Short term Trend has gone weak , it is evident from this chart --

2. Daily Chart with imp. levels and indicators(check the macd giving sell) --

3.Weekly chart with important levels and indicators(check the stochs giving sell) --
 

4. The approx. VWAP of the rollover in last week is at near 5430 levels.This level should act as SAR level for trade untill any new level emerges with higher volumes.

 

5.The Tech. Table prepared by Ilango sir ,courtesy JN , shows two important levels for trade ,5430 to go long and 5350 to go short

6.The Fibo.Retrace targets of the upmove from 4876 to 5478 comes to 5315(23.6%) and 5215 (38.2%)

7.Cautions:

a. The Option Analysis of Aug.series, points to a support at 5300 levels and upside cap at 5500-5600.check Mok's post for details- http://o-j-n.blogspot.com/2010/07/more-charts-on-aug-options.html


b. The Ichimoku charts till show uptrend in Daily charts but are bearish in 5min,15min ,30min and hrly charts. check Mok's post for details-http://o-j-n.blogspot.com/2010/07/ichimoku-bullish-chart-of-nifty-spot_31.html

c. The Stochs (5,3,3) and RSI (9) are nearing oversold areas in 5mim,15min ,30min,& hrly charts,though still to reach o/s in Daily charts.


The above cautions of a support nearby and a bounce ,may be in first half of the next week


8.Conclusions:

-The short term trend is Bearish.


-Imp. Support areas are 5315-5350 & 5215-5250 with Resistance in 5385-95 & 5420-40 zone.

-The level of 5430 can act as SAR for the series.

-Some Bounce to be seen in immediate term due to Oversold nature of the shortterm Indicators.

-Positional longs safe only above 5475 and shorts below 5250 on closing basis