tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post9066091459746055226..comments2024-01-06T16:15:40.022+05:30Comments on The Third Eye: Weekend Analysis - 1AAR VEEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12209323009249048054noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post-21069052014814011132010-10-03T11:55:24.022+05:302010-10-03T11:55:24.022+05:30Very good analysis.I have one doubt. The PE ration...Very good analysis.I have one doubt. The PE ration etc are based on the past and you are saying. If FII decided that base PE ratio should be 25 to30 and bubble zone should be 35 to 40 like that , then ?? After all it is their market. When they are pumping money as if no to morrow, then how will get back their return unless they trapping the Indian people.This is all known to them .By investing @ this level how they will get back the money invested if correction takes place.The market secret lies in that.A big analysis is required from the start of FII investment India and up to now and their average cost of holding and their return expected.BALAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01905338521416115491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post-45431174546320891732010-10-03T12:03:00.866+05:302010-10-03T12:03:00.866+05:30Previously the markets are inter related .For exam...Previously the markets are inter related .For example over night ,US raises, Asian open green then our market will be up . Now a days this is delinked and not totally. We have to see the world over and @ particular point which country stocks are valued less /PE ratio is less with some growth potential like that ,At that time they will take the money and invest that in that country. Very great part of statistical data etc is required and for that our research team /software are not up to the mark is not available. Only way is to periodical profit booking and shift the money to depositsBALAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01905338521416115491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post-54565352868244186622010-10-03T12:11:05.106+05:302010-10-03T12:11:05.106+05:30hi Bala,Thanks for sharing ur views.I wrote this p...hi Bala,<br><br>Thanks for sharing ur views.<br>I wrote this post to caution friends ,<br>any analysis can be based on past data only .New statistics will be created in time but will always have corelation with past .what we should do is to prepare ourselves for future ,just go with the trend but have strict discipline .<br><br>As per liquidity u must know by now that these hedge funds can move out quickly as they are pouring in now.they have done in past and they will do that in future too and Markets do not garauntee that each FII will make profits only. 2008 is example where new hedge funds lost out significantly in India and many hedge funds wiped out with all their liquidity across the world.mere carrying a tag of fii is not enough to reap profits.:)).<br><br>whatever the case be its caution going ahead ,i mentioned that its the start of the bubble zone and may carry on ,November are USA 's senate elections ,may be till then.feel good reqd. there also ,a guess:))AAR VEEnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post-41709477819781822582010-10-03T13:03:23.860+05:302010-10-03T13:03:23.860+05:30Good post. What should be the length of 5th wave w...Good post. What should be the length of 5th wave with the base value of 5964. Assuming Nifty remains above 25PE for three months from hereon, it means till Dec 2010 no hassles and January 2011 could be the return of the bears and the threat of LC looms large? Please throw some light on your views.VKhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17153319405169896660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post-8731158130823608752010-10-03T13:17:32.508+05:302010-10-03T13:17:32.508+05:30Hi VK,I will be posting the targets for wave 5 in ...Hi VK,<br><br>I will be posting the targets for wave 5 in next post.<br><br>Dont take the three months for granted but prepare urself for any swift reversal by keeping discipline in any method u are following and booking out at levels by it be it 2 day low ,pivot low ,trendline break ,indicator crossover ,fibo extensions etc or any combination of them. <br>manage ur positions ,dont overtrade ,dont be leveraged and cut positions fast.<br>Buying on dips may become a trap from near future also.AAR VEEnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post-17437859504351499252010-10-03T13:24:11.726+05:302010-10-03T13:24:11.726+05:30Dear AAR VEE,Thanks a lot for analysis.I will reme...Dear AAR VEE,<br><br>Thanks a lot for analysis.I will remember your particularly last 6)No. para.I would like to share my observation here with the help of old NF data in connection with the 25+ P/E ratio then. <br>1)On 12/12/2007 NF top 6201.65 then a correction up to 5720 on 18/12/2007.just 5 trading days.<br>Then from 5720 again up move &<br>2)On 09/01/2008 NF all time top 6336 (just 14 trading days from 5720) then correction up 5861.60 on 16/01/2008 (5 trading days)& from 5861.60 to 4420 on 22/01/2008 (in just 4 trading days)<br>As you mentioned above This old data also tell us that when there was a correction then how it was fast & furious.So though market now a days is in up trend One must be careful because market literally gives absolutely no chance to trade when it starts to correct.mynachttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01555843740218825295noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post-75430528280470002722010-10-03T14:05:54.964+05:302010-10-03T14:05:54.964+05:30dear mynacThanks for the observations ,good as alw...dear mynac<br><br>Thanks for the observations ,good as always.<br><br>If this bubble zone goes on from now on and the open interest figures swell ,i may take my neck out and say that we will see a down circuit in future to give way for swift correction.<br><br>will depend on the o.i. what type of correction will unfold ,swift or slow distribution trapping at each level.<br><br>till signs of reversal are apparent ,no dooms day predictions :))AAR VEEnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post-6609085373631242352010-10-03T22:49:23.877+05:302010-10-03T22:49:23.877+05:30RV,Today's BusinessLine contains beautiful wri...RV,<br><br>Today's BusinessLine contains beautiful write up on PE Ratio..will help all to understand the fundamentals. <br>PE is still within buy zone for the FII as rupee is appreciating keeping with GDP growth which will absorb the increase in inflation rates and proposed increase in interest rates<br><br>I dont like to fix target when the underlying momentum is strong anyway, guess around 635o plus onwards say approx 6402 onwards, it is entering caution zone...<br><br>take care and have lots of profit<br><br>best<br>sriSriganeshhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16961540786538177236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post-42196355865725656462010-10-03T22:51:55.256+05:302010-10-03T22:51:55.256+05:30RV,i do agree that old data helps us but related e...RV,<br><br>i do agree that old data helps us but related economic factors has also to be considered along with that...it is like removing bugs in data callled as data sterilisation in statistician's viewSriganeshhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16961540786538177236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post-15015859746351319452010-10-03T23:05:24.039+05:302010-10-03T23:05:24.039+05:30The link for article on PE is http://www.thehindub...The link for article on PE is <br>http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2010/10/03/stories/2010100351751200.htm<br><br>hope it clears some of the doubts<br><br><br>sriSriganeshhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16961540786538177236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4106354889057002803.post-16084040864310010802010-10-03T23:07:05.101+05:302010-10-03T23:07:05.101+05:30Hi Sri,U know that i am not much of a fundamental ...Hi Sri,<br><br>U know that i am not much of a fundamental analyst type.but the chart shows that P/B is lesser than previous comparable P/E above 25. yes in an upmove targets cannot be fixed more so when resistances are not there to withheld.This post was just to put in word of caution to be aware that we are moving in danger zone.<br>In markets extremes justify rationality and thats where people are sucked in. reversal will come only then.AAR VEEnoreply@blogger.com